The following is an update to the second quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the second quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual second quarter 2025 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on July 31, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 927 | 900 – 940 | |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.6 | 6.4 – 6.8 | |
| Underlying opex | 1.0 | 1.0 – 1.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.4 | 1.4 – 1.8 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.8 | 0.3 – 0.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q1’25. | |||
Upstream
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,855 | 1,660 – 1,760 | Reflects scheduled maintenance and the completed sale of SPDC in Nigeria. |
| Underlying opex | 2.2 | 1.9 – 2.5 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.2 | 2.0 – 2.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.6 | 1.6 – 2.4 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q2’25 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q2’25 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. | |||
Marketing
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,674 | 2,600 – 3,000 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.4 | 2.3 – 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.5 – 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.4 | 0.2 – 0.6 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to be higher than Q1’25. | |||
Chemicals and Products
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Indicative refining margin | $6.2/bbl | $8.9/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $126/tonne | $166/tonne | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be a loss. |
| Refinery utilisation | 85% | 92% – 96% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 81% | 68% – 72% | Chemicals utilisation impacted by unplanned maintenance at Monaca. |
| Underlying opex | 2.0 | 1.7 – 2.1 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 | 0.8 – 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | 0.1 | (0.3) – 0.2 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q1’25. The Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings is expected to be below break-even in Q2’25. | |||
Renewables and Energy Solutions
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | — | (0.4) – 0.2 | Trading & Optimisation is expected to be lower than Q1’25. |
Corporate
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.5) | (0.6) – (0.4) |
Shell Group
| $ billions | Q1’25 | Q2’25 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | |||
| Tax paid | 2.9 | 2.8 – 3.6 | |
| Derivative movements | — | (1) – 3 | |
| Working capital | (2.7) | (1) – 4 | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | |||
| – | |||
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities.
Consensus
The company compiled consensus, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on July 23, 2025.